Dip in grocery value inflation is marginal however too early to know if peak has been reached

Posted on Apr 25, 2023

The most recent grocery market share figures from Kantar present that grocery value inflation has dropped barely to 17.3% for the 4 weeks to sixteenth April 2023, however that is nonetheless the tenth month in a row it’s been in double-digits.

The info additionally revealed that Aldi surpassed a ten% market share for the primary time, while its fellow discounter, Lidl, was the quickest rising retailer.

As shoppers proceed to seek out methods to handle their family budgets, own-label gross sales had been up by 13.5%, with the very least expensive worth own-label strains hovering by much more – up 46% 12 months on 12 months.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and shopper perception at Kantar, commented: “The most recent drop in grocery value inflation can be welcome information for buyers however it’s too early to name the highest.  We’ve been right here earlier than when the speed fell on the finish of 2022, just for it to rise once more over the primary quarter of this 12 months.  We expect grocery inflation will come down quickly, however that’s as a result of we’ll begin to measure it towards the excessive charges seen final 12 months.  It’s necessary to recollect, after all, that falling grocery inflation doesn’t imply decrease costs, it simply means costs aren’t rising as shortly.”
 
After ten months of double-digit value development, the British public is constant to show to personal label strains to assist handle spending.  Fraser McKevitt defined: “Personal label strains, which are sometimes cheaper, are nonetheless rising at 13.5% this era suggesting buyers are discovering higher worth for cash on these cabinets.  The very least expensive worth personal label strains are doing even higher, with gross sales hovering by 46% versus a 12 months in the past.  These merchandise now discover their approach into almost one in 5 baskets.  Branded gross sales are going up however extra slowly at 4.4%.”

Easter gross sales

In keeping with Kantar shoppers didn’t maintain again on their favourites for Easter and three.4 million households picked up a lamb joint for the standard seasonal roast through the 4 week interval to sixteenth April.

Eleanor O’Brien, managing director of Nationwide Craft Butchers, advised Meat Management: “On common our butchers reported commerce over the interval starting from on degree to six% up on final. Experiences confirmed that pre-orders had been a bit slower than earlier years, however commerce within the week main as much as Easter and throughout that weekend was swift. This resulted in plenty of empty fridges and glad however drained groups.

David Gigli, NCB president elect stated: “We had a wonderful Easter, actually good footfall and actually good spending. Saturday was our high day, which was full on from begin to end. It was significantly better than we thought it is likely to be.”

Stephen Hill of Perrys of Eccleshall stated that there was: “A much bigger enhance in household gatherings and huge joint gross sales, in some methods it felt like a second Christmas within the store.”

Outlook

Consumers are more likely to be looking forward to the three financial institution holidays in Might, together with for the Coronation, which might influence grocery gross sales.  Fraser McKevitt defined: “We’ve recorded bumps in grocery store gross sales for earlier main royal occasions.  Through the week of the Platinum Jubilee final 12 months they had been £87 million greater than the typical in 2022.  We’ll be maintaining an in depth eye on the information within the weeks to come back to see if we get the identical impact this time round, together with how many people bask in a Coronation Quiche.  Solely half of British households purchased a quiche over the previous 12 months so it may not be for everybody.”

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